10 Membranes

Models for Revolution in the Middle East

Everyone can basically agree that the events in the Middle East are good, can’t they? Well, yes, to a point. But it got me thinking about how high expectations are structurally built into the revolutionary moment both domestically and internationally, and how in the past these have always (inevitably) been let down. In the case of the Middle East there the models of the post-revolutionary functioning of the countries suggest that they may be in for a tough time. 

Pessemistic Post-Revolutionary Models

1.) Islamism (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq): While all of these countries have very different circumstances they share the most critical problematic of the revolutionary Middle East - the involvement of radical Islamic elements, bent on the imposition of Wahabite Islam, Sharia law, notions of the Caliphate and jihad. Each of the countries has in post-revolutionary circumstances seen a massive rise in support for extremist views, which has lead to gross, widespread oppression and terrorism (Afghanistan), near anarchy, a fractured state and the death of liberalism (Pakistan), increased authoritarianism and strident attempts at global destabilisation and WMD proliferation (Iran) and bitter sectarian civil war (Iraq). We can argue all day about the culpability behind these tendencies, but what seems clear is that elements of them all are alive and well in the Middle East, and could in variously modulated ways serve as models. Those cheering the revolutions are doing so out of feelings of solidarity, yet we should all be worried about security and liberalism given this model. 

2.) Post-communism (Ukraine, Russia, Turkmenistan, Belarus): The chief lesson from 1989 is that where countries can be successfully bought into alliances and institutional structures and so on, in a very close way, they can be successfully made into liberal democracies, East Germany being the most obvious example. But then compare say, the Czech Republic with Belarus. The Orange Revolution in the Ukraine has been completely undone, the old laws established; Russia has hardly the semblance of freedom, its journalists silenced, money hoarded by oligarchs, themselves now totally in thrall to the State in the grip of the de facto dictator, Putin. Without the carrot of EU membership, and without the structure to move the economy into mass ownership, these nations have slid back to authoritarian and illiberal rule. 

3.) African post-colonialism: Through 1950s to the 1970s Africa went through a massive wave of decolonisation. In theory resource rich Africa should have been well placed to grow. Yet the resource curse struck (and may well do again in oil rich Middle Eastern countries); corruption ran rampant; economies actually shrunk in the period from 1980, only starting to grow again in the middle part of the last decade. States crumpled, civil war was rife and chaos reigned. Meanwhile a corpulent elite sucked up the proceeds of natural resources, even as those proceeds lead to chronic underinvestment in industry and production. The combination of kleptocratic elites, natural resources and a power vacuum without strong organically grown institutions has created problems on a vast scale. 

My argument is that this shouldn’t really be a moment of celebration for those committed to freedom and democracy (words that make one sound like an American ideologue, but meant in the best and truest sense). The work is only half done and each of the nations in the Jasmine Revolution balances on a precipice that, history suggests, could lead them to a return to where they have come from 2.) or worse poverty 3.) or harsh extremist positions that end up threatening global security and eroding rights and freedoms at home 1.). Of course, that it is happening at all is better than not and it could go right, there are some excellent precedents here:

1.) The American Revolution

2.) Germany, Japan, Korea in the wake of massive wars

3.) China after Mao and the internal revolution of Deng Xiaoping

4.) The 1688 Glorious Revolution 

Yet none of the conditions really hold. Of course, the situation is utterly specific and so will be the outcome, but thinking in these terms is useful in mapping possible futures. In the meantime thoughts are with the revolutionary people of Libya and elsewhere.